मुद्रा को भाउ कसरि निर्धारण गरिन्छ ?

By: Bikal Dhungel 

Yo prasna dherai ho man ma adki raheko ra dherai le nabujheko prasna ho. 1 american dollar ko vau 100 rupiya kina huncha, 1 katari riyal ko kina 26 rupiya matra aaucha, 100 bharati rupiya ko kina sadhai 160 nepali rupiya matra aaucha ? Yi prasna ka uttar jatil chan, tesaile dherai sunna ma aaudaina. Mudra ko vau tokne mechanism bujhna ko lagi anthasastra , bises gari monitary economics ko gahiro adhyan garnu jaruri cha. Paisa vaneko ke ho, kunai desh le kati paisa chapne vanne kasari hisab garne, chahine vanda dherai chapda ke huncha, kam chapda ke huncha, arthik mandi vayeko belama kasto niti line aadi yityadi kura economics ko euta branch monetary economics le hercha. Yesko ra aru kehi chetra ko adhyan nagari mudra ko vau tokne mechanism padhema prasna mathi prasna uthchan tara uttar vettauna vane nikai garo parcha. Yo article le, sabai manche le bujhne gari, saral vasa ma yo prasna ko uttar dincha. Tara yo vannu ko artha tyo haina ki vau tokne process sahaj cha. Yo nikai kathin cha ra complicated hisab haru ko support ma reality ma mudra niti liyincha.

Suru garau, maag ra apurti arthat Demand and Supply kai niyam bata. Kunai pani chij ko demand dherai cha, supply kam cha vane tesko mulya badhna jancha. Tesai gari, kunai pani chij ko supply dherai cha ra demand kam cha vane tesko mulya thorai huncha. Paisa ko mamila ma pani yo niyam lagu huncha. American dollar ko demand dherai cha, tara apurti kam cha vane dollar ko vau badcha, ra demand kam cha vane vau ghatcha. Tara mudra ko demand chai kina badhcha ? Yesko uttar nai exchange rate mechanism ho. Yo kura clear garna ko lagi euta example liu. Germany ma dherai saman ko utpadan huncha jastai Siemens ko washing machine, BMW car, MAN ko dozar, Bayersdorf ko NIVEA. Nepal ma basne manche lai yi saman ko awasyak paryo. Yo kinna ko lagi Germany ma sthit company harulai ta Nepali le Euro ma tirnu paryo kinaki ti company harule afno desh ko paisa ( EURO ) matra linchan. Tesaile tyo nepali afno sahar ma sthit Bank ma jancha ra vancha, „ Ma tapailai Nepali rupiya dinchu, malai Euro dinus „ usle Euro satcha. ra kunai means bata German company lai payment garcha ra afno saman paucha. Tyo bank le pachi Foreign Exchange market ma gayera mudra satcha. Yestai gari sansar ka dherai desh bata dherai manche le Germany ko saman kinna ko lagi Euro ko demand garda Euro ko vau badhna jancha. Tesko biparit, Nepal ma kehi pani bandaina, tesaile sansar ka manche harulai Nepal ma tirne nepali rupiya ko awasyak nai pardaina tesaile nepali rupiya ko vau kam huncha. Tesaile, Niyam Nr- 1 : Yedi tapaiko desh ma dherai company haru cha jasko products ko maag biswo vari bata thuprai cha vane tesle tapaiko mudra ko vau badhaucha.

Foreign Exchange market vaneko yesto thau ho jaha bidesi mudra ko karobar huncha. Tapaile travel agent ma or bank ma or aru kunai thau ma satnu huncha, yestai dherai banks ra agent le bidesi currency jamma garera kunai euta bank lai or central bank lai dinchan jasle bidesh ma vayeko arko bank sanga yo karobar garcha. Foreign Exchange Market vaneko euta fictive transaction method ho jun dui desh ko dui bank bich huncha. Ra Foreign exchange market ma 1 million dollar vanda badi matra karobar garna milcha. Vaneko matlab, jo payo tei le Foreign Exchange market ma paisa satna paudaina.

Pahilo niyam le vaneko kura, yedi tapai bidesh ma saman kinnu huncha vane tyo desh ko currency ko vau badhauna maddat garnu huncha. Tapai bidesh ma saman matra kinna hunna, aru assets pani kinnu huncha. Vaneko matlab, jagga, ghar athawa bidesi company ko share pani kinnu huncha. Nepal ma basera tapaile america ko General Motors ko share kharid garna chahanu vayo vane tapailai ameriki dollar ko awasyak parcha. Ani tapai feri afno bank ma janu huncha, nepali mudra lai dollar ma change garnu huncha ra kunai tarika bata tyo paisa america pathaunu huncha ra tapaiko haat ma General Motors ko share aaucha. Athawa tapai kunai desh lai rin dina chahanu huncha jaslai Finance ma ' Government Bonds' vanincha. Government Bonds euta highly trusted loan ho tesaile dherai manche haru kunai pani sarkar lai rin dina chahanchan. Kunai pani desh lai arthik mandi ko bela or aru bela afno kharcha puryauna garo vayo vane usle Government Bond sell garcha ra uslai paisa dina tayar hune manche le paisa sapat dincha ra tesko certain time ma sawa ra byaj paucha. American sarkar lai tapaile rin dida dollar ma dinu parcha ra yo duita kura, bidesh ma sthit assets ( ghar, jagga, shares, saman etc) ra bidesh ma dine rin le pani bidesi saman kineko jastai gari bidesi currency ko vau badhaucha.

Harek din Foreign exchange market ma hune currency len den ko interaction le nai currency ko vau nirdharan garcha. Tapaiko man ma awasya arko prasna uthi sakeko cha, tyo keho vane. ' Yeso ho vane Japanese Yen ko vau kina teti thorai vayo ta ? ' Ho, 10 Japanese Yen ko vau aja ko rate anusar 8.18 matra cha. Yo Japan ko afnai monetary policy ko karan ho. Afno currency ko vau dherai hunu le Export dherai hune desh harulai hani garcha jastai Japan kinaki bidesi lai Japanese goods kinna mahango parcha tesaile uniharule kindainan. Bidesi le Japanese goods nakinidida production ghatcha, tesle berojgar lyaucha ra japan ko arthatantra ghatna sakcha tesaile Japan le economic rule le tokeko vanda badhi paisa print garera paisa ko vau artificial rup ma ghataidiyeko cha. Tesle Japan vitrai basne manche lai kunai pani aasar pardaina kinaki yo case ma Purchasing Power Parity ko rule lagu huncha. Currency ko original vau tokne mechanism pani Purchasing Power Parity nai ho. Yeslai pani euta udaharan le bujhau. Germany ma 1 din ko talab average ma 100 Euro cha. 100 Euro liyera khane kura kinna bajar jane ho vane 10 jhola saman kinna pugcha jasle ek jana lai 1 mahina vari khana pugcha. Nepal ko 1 din ko average talab, 500 rupiya liyera bajar jane ho vane tesle 1 kilo kukhura ko masu aaucha jasle 2 din matra khana pugla. Yo example le Euro ko vau ra Rupiya ko vau ko antar dekhaucha jun mathematically sajilai calculate garna sakincha. Tara, Germany ma 1 din ko talab le 1 mahina khana pugne saman kina kinna sakiyo, nepal ma kina sakiyena ? Yesto uttar, productivity ra efficiency ho. Highly productive machine harule 1 ghanta ma kam lagat mai 10,000 ota bread banauna sakcha vane Nepal ma 1 ghanta ma 4 poka bread banauna pani garo hola, for example. Yesko lesson keho vane, kunai pani desh vitra technological advancement le money ko strength pani badhaucha. Japan ma paisa ko vau kam cha tara euta Japanese le desh ma kaam garda pani dherai nai kamaune huda Yen ko Foreign exchange market ma vau jati vaye pani uniharule khas matlab hudaina kinaki tyaha pani 1 din ko talab le 1 mahina khana pugne huna sakcha.

Tapaiko man ma feri arko prasna uthi sakyo, export oriented country harulai kam value vayeko currency ramro hune vaye high exporting countries jastai Germany, France ra Netherlands le kina Euro currency li raheka chan ? Kina vane, European Union ka dherai muluk jastai Germany ra Netherlands ko export pani European Union vitra nai cha. Germany ko example linu parda, 60% export EU vitrai jancha. Tesaile eutai currency huda ek ta saman bechda currency sati rakhnu parena, tesle transaction costs bachayo, arko kura , afno wa arko desh ko currency ko vau badhne ghatne vai rahada tesle Businesses harulai planning garna sarai garo huncha ra risks dherai huncha. Eutai currency huda tesle stability lyaucha ra arthatantra ma sakaratmak asar parcha. Tesaile, Germany, France ra Netherlands jasto desh lai Euro le faida garayeko cha. Tara pani Germany ko 60% export EU vitrai ho vane baki 40% kinne bidesi lai ta mahango Euro le asar parne vayo ni. Ho asar pakkai parcha tara Germany ko goods highly specialized goods ho jun sansar ma kasaile pani banauna sakekai chaina. BMW, Siemens jasta company ko high quality goods arule banauna sakne samvawana kam cha ra mahangai pare pani dhani bidesi le yi goods haru kinekai chan. Tesaile, aru desh dhani hudai jada Germany lai faida hudai gako cha. Normal goods export garne vaideko vaye, euta desh ma vau badhda kinne manche le arko desh bata kinthyo tara yo specialized goods ho jaslai vau badhna le thorai matrai effect parcha.

Yesko conclusion: Currency ko real value Purchasing Power Parity le nirdharan garcha tara harek desh le afno Export lai madhyanajar gardai artificial rup ma paisa lai sasto banaune ki tettikai choddine vanne kura nirdharan garchan. Tesaile nai 1 US$ ko 100 rupiya, 1 Euro ko 125 rupiya, 1 Pound ko 160 rupiya, etc vayeka hun kinaki harek desh ko afno sthiti anusar vinna vinnai policy chan. Yo case dherai desh bich ko conflict ko bisaya pani ho. Yedi Germany ra Japan le normal goods banaune ho ra dubai le China lai bechne ho vane, yedi Germany le afno currency lai artificial rup ma sasto banayeko khanda ma China le Germany bata saman kincha tara Japan vane Germany sanga risaucha ra uu pani currency ko price ghatauna tira lagcha. Yo dherai desh haru especially China ra USA ko bich jhagada ko bisaya ho.

Hamile ahile samma currency ko Purchasing Power Parity ko bare bujhyeu jasle kunai pani currency ko real value prastut garcha. Tyo vanda agadi hamile Demand and Supply ko niyam anusar nirdharit hune ra foreign exchange market le tokne bidesi mudra ko mulya bare bujhyeu. Tara ti dherai maddhe euta matra example ho. Currency ko mulya badhaune wa ghataune tatwa haru aru pani thuprai chan jasle short or long term ma vau badhauna ghataune garcha. Ti tatwa haru hun:

1. Desh vitra ra bahira ko saman ko mulya: manau tapai Biratnagar ma basnu huncha, tyaha 1 bora chamal ko 1500 rupiya parcha. Kehi kilometer para India cha ra tyaha 1 bora chamal ko matra 500 IC arthat 800 rupiya parcha, kinaki India ma processing cost thorai hola. Tapai pakkai India gayera chamal kinnu huncha. Tapai le jastai aru nepali harule pani tesai garchan. Tara India ma saman kinda IC chahine hunale tapai nepali rupiya lai pahila IC ma satnu huncha. Dherai jana le teso garda, IC ko vau badhcha ra nepali rupiya ko ghatcha. Yo niyam le ke vancha vane: tapaiko desh ko domestic price level badhyo vane currency ko vau ghatcha, ra domestic price level ghatyo vane currency ko vau badhcha. Tara yo case free trade ko awastha ma ho. Nepal ra India bich free trade nahuna sakcha. Nepal sarkar le tapailai 'India gayera chamal kinna paudainas, nepal mai mahango ma kin' vanyo vane tesle currency ko vau ma ta kei asar pardaina tara tapaiko bagali ma awasya asar parcha. Tesaile nai , free trade euta ramro kura ho. (Why Free Trade is good, read the article ' Open the Border for Trade ' in the same blog ) 
2. Trade Barrier: mathi vane jastai, nepal le trade ma barrier lagaidyo vane nepali currency ko vau ghatna bata rokincha tara tesle sadharan janata jasle saman kinera khancha uslai worse off banaucha.
3. Domestic vs Foreign Goods: Chamal jastai aru thuprai kura hunchan jo desh vitra pani banna sakchan , bahira pani banna sakchan. Tapai Nepal ma basnu huncha ra France ko Wine khana chahanu huncha, means foreign goods lai prefer garnu huncha ra tapai jastai dherai manche le French Wine ko majja lina chahanchan vane bidesi paisa lai appreciate garaucha ra swadesi paisa, rupiya lai depreciate garaucha kinaki tapai rupiya bechera Euro kinna chahanu huncha. Tesko thik ulto, tapai French Wine ko sato Nepal local tharra ko chuski lina mai ramaunu huncha ra dherai le tesai garchan vane Nepal ko rupiya appreciate garcha, Euro tapai ko karan le appreciate hudaina.
4. Productivity: Agina German goods of example ma vaneko jastai, yedi tapaiko productivity dherai cha vane tapaile thorai lagat ma dherai goods produce garna saknu huncha. Tesle goods ko vau ghataucha. Vau ghatda bidesi harule tapaiko goods kinne chances badhcha ra tesle tapaiko currency ko vau badhaucha.

Nr- 1 padhi rahada tapailai pakkai lagyo ki ' Indian Rupee ra Nepali Rupee ko ta vau fix cha, 100 IC ko 160 Rupiya cha, vau ghatne badhne kasari huncha ? Ho, yeslai Fixed Exchange Rate vanincha. Exchange rate nirdharan garne 2 ota niyam maddhe Fixed exchange rate euta ho vane arko Floating Exchange rate ho. Floating exchange rate market ma demand and supply kati cha tesle nirdharan garcha vane Fixed exchange rate sarkar le kunai karan bas, arthik niti lai faida pugne cha vane garcha. Teskai euta example ho nepali rupiya ra IC. Yeslai 'Currency Pegging' vanincha. Kunai pani 2 ota currency peg garda teska faida ra befaida dubai chan. Yedi faida dherai cha vane peg garnu uchit huncha. Nepal ra India ko case ma herne ho vane peg gareko ramro ho kinaki Nepal ko byapar sabai jasto athawa thulo matra ma India sanga matrai cha. Ra yedi nepali rupiya ra IC ko price badhne ghatne vai rahada byapar ma uddhab chadab aaucha jasle planning garda garo banaucha. Nepal lai yo pegging bata hune arko thulo faida ke ho vane, India bikash ko gati ma tibra rup ma gai raheko muluk ho yesko matlab , long term ma IC ko vau badhcha, ra IC ko vau badhda bastab ma 100 IC le 160 vanda badi Nepali rupiya hunu parne ho tara teslai fix exchange rate ma rakheko hunale Nepali rupiya hold garne manche harulai tesle faida garcha. Tara India le yo fixed exchange rate vabisya ma kayam narakhna pani sakcha. Yo kura vabisya le dekhaucha tara Nepali arthatantra pani baliyo vayera jana sakcha. IC-NC pegging ko arko faida ke ho vane, jastai udaharan liu Nepal le Kuwait sanga Oil kharid garna layo tara Kuwait le Nepal lai ' malai tero paisa hudaina, tyo malai ke kam, ki indian Rupees le, ki Dollar le ' vanyo . Kinaki indian rupees Kuwait lai kam aaucha kinaki Kuwait lai feri India le chiya bikri garda usle tyo paisa dina sakcha, tara Nepal sanga Kuwait ko kunai karobar nai chaina vane Nepali currency uslai kam nai chaina tesaile Nepal le pahila nepali rupiya indian currency sanga satnu parne huncha, ani tespachi matra Kuwait lai tirnu parne huncha. Fixed IC exchange rate huda Nepal le jahile pani bidesh ma saman kinda yeti paisa kharcha huncha vanera pardarsi rup le planning garna pani sakcha jun arko pani faida ho.

Exchange Rate nirdharan garne 50% mechanism hamile chalfal gareu, jun real goods market ma adharit thiyo tara arko thulo part vaneko Financial Sector ho. Financial sector ma hune thulo matra ko len den le Foreign Exchange market ma effect parcha. Tesko kehi factors haru hun:

1. Foreign Interest Rate: tapai sanga ek karod cha ra tyo tapai kunai bank ma rakhna chahanu huncha ra sakdo badhi byaj or interest rate kamauna chahanu huncha. Nepal ko bank ma average 5% byaj aaucha tara Japan ko Bank ma rakhne ho vane 6% interest aaucha vane tapai Japan ko bank ma rakhnu huncha. Tesko lagi pani tapaile pahila Japanese Yen satnu paryo. Dherai manche le Japan ko bank ma paisa rakhna khojda tesle Yen ko vau badhaucha. Ra rin line vanda dine dherai aayepachi tyo byaj dar bistarai ghatdai jancha ra Japanese Yen ko value pani ghatcha. Tesaile tapai suru ma active hunuvo vane dherai byaj paunu hunecha.yo vannu ko matlab: If foreign interest rate rises, your domestic currency depreciates and foreign currency appreciates.
2. Domestic Interest Rate: Mathi kai udaharan jastai, tapaiko desh ko real interest rate bidesh ko vanda dherai cha vane paisa rakhna aaune manche ko ghuicho huncha ra tesle tapaiko currency lai appreciate garaucha. ( To Note: Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate – Inflation ) . Nominal interest rate 10% cha tara tyo desh ma mulya briddhi athawa Inflation 8% cha vane real interest rate jamma 2% matra huncha. Tara Inflation 10% cha ra Nominal interest rate 8% cha vane tapai arko barsa aja vanda 2% garib hunu huncha kinaki saman ko mulya byaj dar vanda badheko cha. Vannu ko matlab: If your domestic interest rate rises, your currency appreciates and foreign currency depreciates.
3. Expectation of Interest Rate: Tapailai kunai karan bas thaha cha ki euta desh ma budget deficit hudai cha vaneko matlab euta desh le yo barsa afule kamayeko vanda dherai kharcha gareko cha. Tesaile arko barsa tyo desh le rin linu parcha. Matlab, byaj dar badhdai cha, ra byaj dar badhnu vaneko currency ko vau pani badhnu ho tesaile tapai ahile dekhi nai tyo currency hat ma liyera basna saknu huncha. Yo ek prakar ko speculation pani ho. Dherai vanda dherai manche le yeso garda yo sacchikai yestai huncha. Manau, Bangladesh ra Myanmar ko ladai paryo. Tapailai thaha cha ki chittai Bangladesh le tyo ladai finance garna paisa magdai cha, vannu ko matlab, byaj dar badhaudai cha. Tapai ahile nai Bangladesi taka satera rakhna saknu huncha kinaki tesko vau short term ma badhcha. Vau badhepachi tapai tyo feri satnu huncha ra aru kunai currency linu huncha kinaki long term ma, ladhai pareko khanda ma production kam hune wa productive chetra haru dhwasta hune huda currency ko vau ghatcha. Tesaile yo samaya ko faida uthauna sakincha. Vannu ko matlab: If the expectation of interest rate rises, currency appreciates. If expectation declines, currency depreciates.
4. Financial, Economical and Political Crisis: Bangladesh ra Myanmar ko ladhai ko case jastai, tapaiko desh vitrai kunai tesyo rajnitik wa samajik asthirta aayeko khanda ma tesle currency lai awasya asar garcha. Rajtinik asthirta le arthatantra lai ramro sanga kam garna didaina, production hudaina, byapar hudaina ra tesle kin bech ko kram pani kam huncha. Teso huda Nepali rupiya ko vau ghatcha. 2005 pachi Nepali currency ko vau ghatnu ko mukhya karan yehi ho. Yedi tapai bidesh ma basnu huncha vane jahile tapaile nepal ma paisa pathaunu huncha, asthirta ko samaya tapaiko Dollar wa Euro le dherai rupiya paucha. Santi ko bela wa arthatantra ramro vayeko bela Dollar, Euro wa anya kunai currency nepali rupiya ma satda thorai matra aaune garcha. Yes prakar ko situation ko faida liyera dherai le Speculation garne garchan jun kanun biparit haina tara jo manche sanga desh ma asthirta lyaune sakti cha, usle yesto situation ko faida uthayera legal rup mai rata rat dhani huna sakcha. Biswa ka dherai desh ma Speculation sambandhi kanun nai chaina tara speculation le desh ko arthatantra lai ekaichin ma khattam banauna sakcha. Yesto speculants haru rajnitik party, wa neta haru, Banks or industrialists haru huna sakchan jo sanga thulo matra ma cash huncha. Tesaile nai biswo ka praye desh ma, paisa ko mamila herne rastra bank, rajnitik hastachyap vanda bahira huncha. Yesko matlab yo haina ki thula neta le mudra ko case ma hastachyap gardainan. Awasya garchan. Baburam Bhattrai nepal ko pradhanmantri huda paisa ko khola bagayeka thiye. Unka artha mantri Barsa Man Pun le arthasastra ko niyam biparit tibra rup ma paisa print garna lagauda mulya briddhi hunu ko sathai aru bivinna nakaratmak asar haru aayo. Tesle Inflation lyayo. Inflation le nepal lai kasari nakaratmak asar paryo bujhna ko lagi euta sano udaharan liu. 2006 vanda agadi euta majdur ko ek din ko jyala 100 rupiya hunthyo. Usle mahina vari kam garera 3000 rupiya kamauthyo. Manau, tyo majdur le 30 barsa samma vari bokera masik 3000 rupiya kamaeko thiyo jasbata usle harek mahina 500 rupiya afno budesh kal ko lagi vanera bachat gareko thiyo. Yesko matlab usle 30 barsa ma 180,000 rupiya bachat gareko thiyo. Yo paisa le uslai pahila ko case ma dherai lamo samaya samma khana pugthyo tara jaba Baburam ra Barsa Man le jathavabi rup ma paisa print garne adesh diye, tesle nepal ma nikai mahangi badhayo. Ho majdur ko jyala pani badhyo. Majdur le aja mahina ko 25000 kamaucha tara usko masik kharcha 20000 huncha. Aja kam garera khana sakne lai ta yesle khasai farak parena tara tyo majdur jasle 30 barsa kam garera 180,000 budesh kaal ko lagi jogayera rakheko thiyo, usko paisa le usle aja 9 mahina matrai khana paucha. Ra uu kam garna pani sakdaina. Yehi karan, hajarau yesta budha budhi aasahaya haru haat mukh jorna nasakne awastha ma kathmandu ko sadak ma maaghera khana badhya chan jasmaddhe kehi lai Dil Shova Shrestha jasta manche le afno briddhaasram ma sahara di raheka chan. Yesto manche haru badhne kram vabisya ma jhan badhne cha. Argentina ra anya dherai desh ko kanun anusar Baburam Bhattrai ra Barsa Man Pun lai karabas ko sajaya hunthyo kinaki uniharule hajarau manche ko budesh kaal ko sahara sakhap paridiye. Tyo euta thulo pap ho. Yo vannu ko matlab, kharab policy le thulo nakaratmak asar lyaucha jun Nepal ma prasasta matra ma dekhna sakincha.
5. Speculation: antya ma, Exchange rate nirdharan garne tatwa speculation ho. Euta namud Economist wa Mantri le TV ma gayera ' Nepali Rupiya ko vau ghatdai cha ' vandiye vane rata raat manche haru afu sanga vayeko nepali rupiya satera Dollar wa anya kunai currency rakhna chahanchan. Yesle sidhai nepali currency ko vau ghatauna ka sathai dollar ko vau badhaucha. Aja ko information age ma, manche haru TV, Patrika padhera vanda pani afai sanga vayeko information ko adhar ma pani speculation garchan jun mathi ullekh gariye anusar political instability ma adharit huna sakcha, economical or anya kunai karan huna sakcha. Jaba 2007/08 ma Financial Crisis vayo, manish haruko ameriki dollar prati ko biswas ghatyo ra uniharule Europe rajnitik sthir ra baliyo vayeko karan le afno paisa Euro ma satna thale jasle Euro ko vau badhayo, tara kehi samaya nabitdai Europe ma pani Greece ko karan thulo Crisis aayo. Greece ko Crisis sardai Portugal, Ireland, Spain ra Italy ma pani jane sanket dekhina thalyo, manche harule sochna thale ki aba Euro dhalcha. Euro dhalda yesko vau ghatcha ra arthik mandi aune khatara dekhera manche haru arko secure currency ko khoji ma lage ra Switzerland ko Swiss Frank kharid garna thale. Swiss Frank teti dherai matra ma kharid bikri huda yesko vau ekkasi badhna thalyo. Vau dherai badhda, Swiss Goods haruko price antarastriya bajar ma badhne ra tesko karan kam bikri hune huda tesle Swiss arthatantra ma nakaratmak asar parne khatara dekhera Switzerland ko rajnitijya harule Financial Market ma intervention garnu paryo. Yesta katha haru thuprai chan tara speculation le ke dekhaucha vane, yedi dherai thula thula investor harulai lagcha ki euta currency ko vau ghatcha wa badhcha ra unerle tei anusar bebahar dekhauna thale vane tyo pakkai tei anusar huncha. Tara biswa ma yestai euta currency lai arko ko biruddha speculate gardai dhani hune byakti dherai chan jas maddhe ek hun George Soros ( born György Schwartz ) jo sanga aja 27 billion dollar sampati cha ra tes maddhe dherai usle samajik karya ko lagi diyeka chan. Hungary ma janmiyeka Soros dritiya biswa yuddha ma Nazi harule 1944 ma Hungary lai kabja gari tyaha ka Yahudi harulai marne kram ma vaagera saranarthi ko rup ma belayat aai pugeka thiye. Uni waiter tatha bivinna kam gari London School of Economics samma pugna safal vaye. Soros lai ke thaha thiyo vane, Nepal ra India ko currency ma gareko jastai fixed exchange rate kyam rahana dubai desh sanga dubai desh ko enough currency reserve hunai parcha. Yo euta Financial Economics ko topic ho jun yaha prastut garna possible chaina. Unlai yo niyam ko jankari thiyo. Uni thula investor thiye jasle bivinna desh ma lagani gareko huda unko naam agra pankti ma aauthyo. Teti bela Pound Sterling ra German Mark ko exchange rate pani Nepal ra India ko jastai fixed thiyo. Britain ko inflation rate dherai thiyo ra uniharuko reserve ko matra ghatdai gayeko thiyo. Soros le fixed exchange rate ma certain amount , example 40 billion German Mark which was equal to about 20 billion pound rin liyeka thiya ( 1 Pound = 2 Mark ). UK ko reserve ghatda Pound ko value ghatcha vanne unlai thaha thiyo. Unle tyo vanda pani dherai rin liye ra ekdin TV ko interview ko kram ma vanidiye ' Pound ko vau ghatne wala cha ' tyo sunera anya dherai investors le rata rat Pound bechera anya currency kine ra chittai nai Pound ko value sacchikai ghatidiyo. 1 Pound = 2 German Mark ma rin liyeka Soros ko lagi aja vau ghatera 1 Pound = 1.6 German Mark matra vaidiyo ( just for Example ). Ra Soros le afule liyeko rin firta diye, jun hijo 40 billion German Mark thiyo tara aja tyo 32 Billion matra diye pugne vayo. Yo amount euta example matra ho tara tyo ek din matra Soros le $1 billion nafa gare ra America gaye. Jun din lai aja UK ma ' Black Wednesday ' vanincha ra George Soros lai ' the man who broke the Bank of England '. Vannu ko artha Speculation le Currency ko vau nirdharan garne kram ma sahayog garcha.

Aba sabai kura lai conclude garnu parda, Exchange rate euta matrai kura le nirdharan garne haina. Yo dherai kura ko combination ho. Ti hun: Number of Firms in a country, domestic assets, expectation about price level, export demand, money supply, inflation, interest rate, trade barriers, productivity, political instability, expectations and speculation. Yi sabai kura lai dhyan ma rakhera currency ko vau nirdharan huncha. Yesma thap prasna haru utpanna hunchan jastai byaj dar chai ke le determine garcha, inflation kasari huncha, trade barriers ka karan haru keke hun, productivity le ke kasto asar parcha etc afai ma euta thula chetra hun ra yi sabai chetra ka mechanism ramro sanga bujhe pachi matra Foreign Exchange Market ramro sanga bujhna sakincha. Yo nabujhi exchange rate ko bare padhna khojda tirimiri jhyai hune prabal samvawana cha