Friday, 27 March 2015

Fall of Traditional Banking

By: Bikal Dhungel

This article is not about rich countries. This can be generalised for poor countries but I deal with the situation of Nepal.

Nepal has no problem with liquidity. Financial Institutions have money but only the problem is, they dont want to lend. Why they dont want to lend is because the large portion of borrowers lack collateral. Without collateral, it is hard to get any fund from financial institution. However, every economist or development expert knows that, availability and access to financial sector is crucial for economic growth. Without an opportunity to borrow, the poor will never come out of poverty trap. As they cannot get fund from traditional banks, they turn to landlords or other unconventional way of borrowing mostly with very high interest rates. Countries have recognised this problem and step in to lend the poor either directly or through the schemes like Micro-credit, which was first introduced by Bangladeshi Economist and Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohammad Yunus.

Access to finance and credit is vital for poverty reduction. The poor need liquidity to come out of poverty trap. This might be for investment in businesses, education, health or buy other goods. In the present situation, they borrow from friends or neighbours or other family members. Poor also go to moneylenders who charge very high interest, sometimes as much as 100%. The interest rate in traditional banks would be much lower. But still, they dont lend to the poor. Reason for this, as above mentioned, the poor dont have collateral. Also if the banks would lend them, normally poor borrow a very tiny amount leaving the banks with less profit. The transaction cost is higher hence lending is not lucrative. Also in the case of default, banks do not want to run after the poor as it is time and money consuming and the gains from this are tiny.
In poor countries where the banking culture is not well established and where only selective businesses and political elites have access to finance, the problem of adverse selection remains high, which means, the ability of banks to select good borrowers from bad ones. So, in such an environment, moneylending by the local moneylenders gain popularity. In a typical village for example, the moneylenders also live in that particular area. So, they have local knowledge, meaning that they watch the borrower in regular basis. Chances of misuse is lower and the loan repayment can be transferred to generations. This is an advantage for the lenders but if the borrowers cant read and right, this can cause a serious problem. There are many inter-generational poverty trap based on such lendings. The grandfather had borrowed some money sometime and to pay that back, his son or even grandson should work for free at the lenders fields and the credit never finishes. This is why the program of Microfinance gained popularity. Micro finance charge little bit more interest rate than traditional banking, sometimes even lower rates are applied but they are not 100% and never passes over to the borrowers children or grand children. The default rate in microfinance is lower than traditional banking.
What is especial about it is that, this is basically a group lending. There are few people in a group and to borrow money, they need an ok by other group members. The members monitor the borrower closely because if she fails, their credit rating will be bad, giving incentive to spend the money intelligently. Microcredit has over 97% women, may be because women are careful money managers. And frequently there are group meetings where they discuss about the current situation, business possibilities, how the current business is running, etc. This scheme was extremely successful in terms of lending. In 1997, there were about 8 million users worldwide, in 2010, it grew to 140 million. There was a huge savings available in south asia wide and the scheme was expanded into other financial services as well. In 2009, there were almost 600,000 micro finance institutions in Nepal and the number was growing. To shorten it, Microfinance indeed changed the lives of millions which traditional banking sector couldnt. Still, the long term impact of it is still to be seen.
However, Microfinance is not without controversies. There were rumors that institutions use Mafia methods to recover loans, using brutal methods like physical harm. Others point that many microfinance institutions are profitable so why do they still charge high interest rates. But interest rates differ in different places. Then there is an issue of long term impact to economic growth. Some people use it for investment but some for consumption. Those who use it for consumption, are likely to be trapped in debt, so how to deal with these issue is a matter of discussion. But there are still some evidence that microfinance was able to reduce some poverty. Yet, the great change is still to be seen.

The aim of this article was to show that, as large portion of the population is poor in Nepal, they are using Microfinance scheme because it is more suitable for them. Even though the importance of big banks will remain, their share in lending is decreasing day by day. However, if they fail to come up with creative finance packages, they might be out of business because what we see as successful models of cooperative banks in Europe had a similar origin like Microfinance. The most successful story of saving associations are in Germany. The German Sparkassen is quasi state institutions who are autonomous in some degree but operate under an umbrella of national board. They are called the lending institutions to the middle class. They basically support local businesses and even the profit are retained and can be used for social purposes. They are non-profit institutions but not fully. It has proved to be a successful model. During the financial crisis of 2007/2008, the Sparkassen were able to maintain their liquidity and they survived the crisis without any problems. However, even in Germany, it doesnt mean that there are no big banks. There are several big banks but it will not be appropriate to compare Germany with Nepal. What I mean to say is, where there is a problem, there will be a solution. Where the traditional way has failed, innovation prevailed and it will gain importance even further in the future.


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