This time its for real: The Yes No of Environmental and Human Disaster

By: Bikal Dhungel 

Everything that scientists predict about the future of earth or environment, it is never 100% sure. No one can say for sure what will happen because a longer time frame is necessary. The life of this earth is between 4-6 billion years, but the humans are there only since 200,000 years. The latest remains of early humans were found in Australia and it is believed that they were from some 40,000 years ago. Only since 8000 years, there is a recorded history. The scientific judgement was only possible since 200 years. 200 years out of 6 billion is too little to predict something. Due to our short lifespan, there is a huge gap of information regarding the environmental science.

The environmental pollution that we see now is however real, because we see it. We see it in the form of acidification, in the form of cleared forests and the consequences of this can also be seen in the short term. But we do not know how this will impact in the long or very long term.

In the year 1798, Thomas Malthus came with an idea of human disaster which he wrote in his ' Essay on the principles of population ' that we are heading for a big disaster because of rapid population growth. Population was increasing geometrically but the food production was only growing arithmetically. Consequence of this will be a big human disaster, hunger, famine, poverty and many more. It sound logical that time because he based his essay on the current scenario of that time and predicted the future. Then on 19^th century, John Stuart Mill had a great news for the people, he claimed that humans were saved and the Malthusian disaster will not happen because of technological advance. Technology saved and Malthus was proved wrong, at least for a moment. Then again, Rudolf Clausius came with a new idea of the law of thermodynamics and entropy.

To understand this in an easiest way possible, lets see what this means. Thermo means heat and dynamic means power ( Oxford Dictionary ) hence we can say, thermodynamics means power of heat. The first law of thermodynamics tell that energy can neither be created nor be destroyed. Energy can only change forms. For example, you can burn woods, so you have changed solid into gas but the total amount of energy or matter remained in the universe, it doesnt go away as the universe is regarded as a closed system. The second law of thermodynamics , which is also called the law of entropy says, the amount or quantity of energy or matter remains same in the universe but the quality changes. In an example of wood, woods are regarded as good but when you burn it, it will be turned into gas, and the gas is not good, because it is bad for your health and cause problem in the atmosphere. So, the quality of the matter became worse. This is where entropy comes which means in a rough sense, the increase of unusable energy. As the wood was turned into gas, the gas is unusable or is lost somewhere in the universe. As it goes to ozone layer, there will be chaos and randomeness. This will create chaos on earth. Clausius says, when industries burn fossil fuels, it will go to the ozone layer and cause environmental consequences and the humans are doomed. He was supported by Rachel Carson, who wrote a book called 'Silent Spring', a super hit, that predicted very bad ecological consequences which might put the humans in trouble. In 1972, an economist , Dennis Meadows wrote another book ' Limits to Growth ' which again warned our way of life. He also said, if we dont radically change the way of our resource intense life, this will impede the economy due to scarce resources. Then came the famous 'Brundtland Report' on the name of Norwegian prime minister and special UN envoy Gro Harlem Brundtland. She came with the idea of Sustainable Development. SD gave hope to mankind. If we go further in a sustainable way, we can save the planet and ensure economic well being at the same time. But when Denis Meadow's update of 'Limits to Growth' came after 30 years, he wrote, 'we are still in trouble'. This was supplemented by Stern Review in 2006, which focused on Green House Gas Emission. Among others, Stern Review also mentioned that developing countries are increasing their share of GHG emission when they grow. Developing countries growth was mainly led by China and India. The major consequences of climate change will be faced by developing countries. So the Stern Review implied that, developing countries should also play their part to reduce GHG emission for better environment. Western Europe is committed to reduce GHG emission, there were many climate negotiations where many countries signed to reduce GHG emission. Additionally, through the technological advances and the growing investment in renewable energy, rich countries will reduce their GHG emission. Developing countries are less willing to sign any climate deals because they need growth to eradicate poverty. So, without efforts from developing countries, environment will surely deteriorate. We are saved if everybody work together, agree on climate measures but we are doomed if negotiations fail.

From the events mentioned above, we can say that somebody comes up with good news, and again bad news follow and again there are good news and again bad and good and bad and it continues like this. When I see the current status of the world, I think this is the bad time. The acidification process, desertification of millions of hecters of land, the population growth, toxification of rivers etc, I come to conclusion that humans are doomed, but I am also a firm believer in the power of technology to solve most of the crisis humans are facing. Though, technology has helped us to solve many problems, not all problems were solved. People die with various forms of cancer, there are diseases which have no treatment. So, it is also not sure that technology will save us.

The Brundtland Report advises the cooperation between many actors, the industrial sector, national and regional governments, aid organisations and international organisations. When everybody play their part, if there is investments in clean energies, if there are tough rules and regulations for dirty forms of energies, if countries cooperate and agree to solve the global problem together, we can at least be happy that, this time, again, we are saved. But if countries failed to do this, we are doomed. Once we are doomed, it might never be possible to reverse this and would perhaps bring an end of humans or end of life on this planet which we called home for a very long time.